Over 9 crore Indians at risk of hunger due to climate change: Report

The effects of climate change will put 9.06 crore Indians at risk of hunger in the next eight years, according to the Global Food Policy Report 2022 on ‘Climate change and food systems’ by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

The report which was released on Thursday (May 12), said by 2030, without climate change 7.39 crore Indians are at risk of hunger but when the climate change effects are factored in, the number goes up to 9.06 crore.

However, as per the report, the same number will come down from 9.06 crore to 4.49 crore by 2050. Without climate change, it will be 4.5 crore.

In South Asia, climate change is projected to reduce agricultural GDP through declining crop yields, and increased consumer prices, with greater losses associated with higher warming levels.

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By 2030, the number of hungry in the developing world drops by 18.6 crore (36%) with investments under no climate change while making the same investments under climate change reduces hunger by only 16.5 crore (28%), according to the report.

As per the report, the average temperature across India is projected to rise by between 2.4°C and 4.4°C by 2100. Similarly, summer heatwaves are projected to triple or quadruple by 2100 in India.

A global study that accounts for extreme weather events estimates that, by 2050, the number of people at risk from hunger will increase by 11 to 20%, with South Asia (along with sub-Saharan Africa) at greatest risk, and estimates that South Asia will need three times its current food reserves to offset the impacts of such events, it added.

The aggregate food production index without climate change will be 1.627 in 2030 and 2.164 in 2050, and with the effects of climate change, it will be 1.549 in 2030 and 2.003 in 2050. In 2010, it was 1.00.

Further, talking about the effects of climate change, the IFPRI report said, “Climate change is a growing threat to our food systems, with impacts becoming increasingly evident. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events, among other effects, are already reducing agricultural yields and disrupting food supply chains. By 2050, climate change is expected to put millions of people at risk of hunger, malnutrition, and poverty.”

Agricultural production dips in India

“The world remains far from achieving the emissions reductions needed to constrain warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While this goal remains feasible, the longer we wait, the more difficult achieving it will become. For each tenth of a degree that the global average temperature rises above 1.5°C, human and environmental costs are expected to escalate at increasing rates. For the foreseeable future, climate change will continue to disrupt food systems with greater frequency and severity, unless action is taken now,” it added.

The report raised concerns that with 2030 less than eight years away, meeting the goal of eliminating hunger and malnutrition presents a formidable challenge, one that demands renewed efforts to increase productivity and incomes to bring billions out of poverty.

In India, agricultural production data (1967–2016) for several crops show that average land productivity decreases as average temperatures increase, and this impact accelerates at higher levels of warming. Projections show yields of India’s crops falling by 1.8 to 6.6% by mid-century (2041–2060) and by 7.2 to 23.6% by the end-century (2061–2080) under a middle-of-the-road scenario for climate change. Yield losses are projected to be higher in rainfed conditions, and yield losses in wheat and maize are projected to be higher than yield losses in rice, the report said.

‘Code Red for Humanity’

Johan Swinnen, Director General, IFPRI, and Global Director, Systems Transformation, CGIAR, said, “This year’s Global Food Policy Report on food systems transformation and climate change echoes the sombre warning issued by recent IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports: as we continue to degrade the environment and push beyond our planetary boundaries, we are entering a ‘Code Red for Humanity’. Food systems are inseparably linked to this unprecedented crisis, which threatens the food security, nutrition, and health of billions of people.”

“Our food systems are not only severely impacted by climate change, requiring an urgent focus on adaption, but also play a role in causing about one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, with two-thirds of that resulting from agriculture, forestry, and other land use. Investing in food systems transformation is a key piece of the climate change puzzle, yet it is vastly underfunded, with only a small part of climate finance directed toward this goal,” Swinnen added.